The Safer Approach to Consistently Higher Returns
Update for 13 December 2019
All five of the indexes we track were inconsistent on indicators this week. We remained in cash with no active trades.
Update for 6 December 2019
On Tuesday the 3rd the patterns for the five ETF's we track (QQQ, SPY, IWM, TLT, VXX) were all confused. On the equities we had downward momentum and yet pricing had risen over the day (it had started way down on trade concerns). Similar conditions existed on TLT and VXX. So we stayed in cash this week.
Update for 29 November 2019
This week, when it came time to make trade decisions at 3:30 on Tuesday the 26th, we had weak BULLISH signals on IWM and SPY, but no trades existed that could meet the 80% out of the money threshold and be worth more than 5 cents. So we only traded TLT (PUT 140/139) as BULLISH netting us 0.9% for the week and yielding us 77.3% year to date and 57.3% annual average for the Fund.
Update for 22 November 2019
The negative momentum for equities seemed to continue into this week. Nonetheless we had a BULLISH signal on QQQ (PUT 201/200) along with a BULLISH signal on TLT (PUT 137.5/136.5). For QQQ, that was the high for the week.
As if to reinforce that equities are getting tired, QQQ reversed downward Wednesday and we closed that position via automated stop. You can see the chart that resulted above. Note the red downward move in the top section and the red negative momentum in the bottom section.
Now, as it turns out, QQQ would have worked out for us if we had continued to hold it. But when things reverse, we have no way to know that it is temporary. So we accept small losses in these circumstances in order to avoid larger ones.
TLT, on the other hand, went on to perform as we hoped and expired worthless on Friday. Our gain for the week was 0.4% bringing our year to date to 75.7% and annual average to 57%.
Update for 15 November 2019
The main equity indexes we track were starting to lose momentum as the week started on Monday and Tuesday. Despite this, we had BULLISH indication across the board on QQQ (PUT 199/198) and SPY (PUT 306/305) and executed those trades late Tuesday. IWM had rolled over and it being down is usually an early indicator of bearish potential. Indeed, on Wednesday, QQQ came close to stopping out with a loss. Expectations of (or not) of a trade deal seemed to drive everything (up and down) and yet by Friday close we had a 2.3% up week, bringing our year to date to 74.9% and annual average to 56.9%.
Update for 8 November 2019
The BULLISH equity pattern continued this week (in line with BEARISH TLT and VZZ patterns). Of those we track, only SPY (PUT 304.5/303.5)and IWM (PUT 157/156) had clear and consistent signals as of about 3:30 on Tuesday. However, if we had waited until closer to 4 PM, then only SPY would have been traded. In any case, things were tight Wednesday for both SPY and IWM and tight again for IWM on Thursday (in other words, we came close to exiting these positions via stops). By Friday, all was good and we gained 1.9% on the combined 25% allocation trade for the week bringing our year to date performance to 71.0% as compared to our annual average of 56.4%.
Update for 1 November 2019
This was an FOMC decision week and we would normally not trade anything. But confidence in the signaling the Fed had been doing was so high, that we took a risk on IWM (usually the least affected by Fed decisions of the five issues we track). All of the others were confused on signals. So we sold IWM PUT 154.4/153.5 on Tuesday at 3:25 PM. We almost closed this trade for a loss on Thursday but held off and the result was a 1.2% gain for the week bringing our year to date to 67.9% and overall annual average to 55.9%.
Update for 25 October 2019
The markets for the week of October 21 seemed to enter a breather amid confusion on trade, Brexit and earnings. The only issue we track that had clear signals was IWM as BULLISH and we traded PUT 152/151 on Tuesday at 3:30 PM. This gained us 1.1% for the week bringing our 2019 return to date to 65.9% - above our annual average of 55.6%.
Update for 18 October 2019
Stocks seemed poised for upticks on Tuesday the 15th and four issues met our stringent criteria for credit spreads this week. This fit the pattern of recovery from previous bearish sentiment and so QQQ (PUT 191/190), SPY (PUT 295/294) and IWM (PUT 149/148) were BULLISH and VXX (CALL 23/24) was BEARISH. We netted 2.2% for the week.
Update for 11 October 2019
This past week started with clear signals, but alas, they were a lie! This is where our UZZ Fund approach comes in and limits downside risk so that when signals and performance are aligned (such as the previous week or all of the previous weeks in 2019 except one!) we have exceptional gains.
Based on clear BEARISH patterns on 8 October for QQQ, SPY and IWM, we sold three credit spreads (QQQ CALL 190/191, SPY CALL 195/296, and IWM CALL 149.5/150.5) and also sold one BULLISH credit spread on TLT (PUT 143/142). As usual for us, these were three day trades intended to expire worthless on close of Friday. We always put stop close orders on our open spreads so on Tuesday night we put stop orders that were near current positions hoping, as is normal for us, that they would never execute. But it was not to be. All but IWM closed on Wednesday morning leaving us pretty much where we had started. IWM closed out on Thursday leaving us a small 0.3% profit.
So, not the best of weeks. But once again the UZZ Fund system has shown it works within the chaotic political and economic times we live in to protect our downside which is one reason our long term performance stands out for us all.
Update for 4 October 2019
We started October with some clear indicators and traded accordingly. We received BEARISH signals on QQQ (CALL 190/191), SPY (CALL 297/298) and IWM (CALL 151/152) as well as a BULLISH signal on TLT (PUT 141/140). This yielded 5.9% for the week bringing our year to date performance to 60% and now clearly above our historical average of 54.8%.
Update for 27 September 2019
There were no trades this week due to ongoing interest rate and growth worries battling with trade optimism to create confused signals for our indicators. We end the third quarter at a net invest rate of return of about 55% for the year so far which is about the same as our long term average of 54.2% annual. To put this in perspective, five years at 50% return turns $10,000 into $75,000 (as compared with the historical average of 8% for the S&P 500 which over five years would turn $10,000 into $14,693).
So far our expense ratios and correction rates are below average for the fund so we should expect in future weeks for an uptick in what we call false trades (reliable signals that lead us to trades that do not work). We'll rely on our safety systems to protect us (three day trades, credit spreads, stops on positions) should that be the case. I'd expect us to finish well above our performance average for this year even taking that into account.
Update for 20 September 2019
This week is a designated NO TRADE week because of the FOMC rate decision pending on Wednesday.
Update for 13 September 2019
After four weeks of nothing, we got some clear indicators and traded them this week. SPY and QQQ were still confused, we had BULLISH on IWM (PUT 149/148) and BEARISH on TLT (CALL 145.5/146.5) and VXX (CALL 25.5/26.5). These worked in a straight fashion with none of our protection coming into play. So that resulted in a 2.6% up week for the Fund.
Update for 6 September 2019
This is the fourth week in a row in which our indicators provide us no clear signals. So thus, we have no trades and are all in cash. This is fairly typical for August which usually has a confused trading picture as trading volume is light (folks are on vacation) and news on all fronts is limited. None of this bothers us. We'll wait for clear signals and gain from those when they come about.
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